What's next in business? The signals emerging for H2 2026
If the first half of 2026 has felt relentless, that's because it has been.
Businesses have spent the year managing a cocktail of AI disruption, tariff disputes, rising costs, changing consumer behaviour, and a deal market that seems to be rewarding scale above all else.
Here are some of the major developments we've seen so far in 2026:
SpaceX has secured a $60 billion deal with AI startup Cursor.
Global M&A activity has surged, with the first quarter alone exceeding $1.2 trillion in deal value. Find out more in our article, The Myth of M&A Best Practices.
Chinese AI-chip company Biren reportedly surged after its public debut.
January 2026 tariff threats shook global markets, raising fears of higher costs and supply-chain disruptions for businesses.
The Trends that Will Shape Businesses in H2 2026
The second half of 2026 is unlikely to bring more certainty. Instead, businesses will need to decide where to place their attention and investment in an environment where opportunities are significant, but so are the risks.
Here are some of the top emerging business trends we think will shape the second half of 2026.
Intelligence sharing for Big Corp
Are strategic partnerships the new competitive moat? Or perhaps data is the new oil and shared intelligence is the new pipeline? It depends on how optimistic or pessimistic you feel about it.
The next phase of competitive advantage may not come from owning more data, but from gaining access to richer intelligence via business partnerships. Companies are building huge interconnected ecosystems, and the insights generated in one business can strengthen decision-making in another.
For example, the partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI doesn’t just enhance AI products in isolation; it feeds learning into Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise tools.
Similarly, the collaboration between Amazon and Anthropic blends frontier model development with cloud infrastructure, allowing both sides to observe how AI is deployed across enterprise environments and improve their capabilities accordingly.
Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, says, “Anthropic's commitment to run its large language models on AWS Trainium for the next decade reflects the progress we've made together on custom silicon, as we continue delivering the technology and infrastructure our customers need to build with generative AI.”
Taken together, these developments suggest that shared intelligence is compounding the power of large organisations—and we don't see that slowing down any time soon.
Business costs and tariff uncertainty
In the second half of 2026, we’ll likely be stepping into a more fragmented international business environment.
The start of 2026 has been shaped by global trade tension, with President Trump’s return to aggressive tariff policy, which triggered a fresh surge of uncertainty across international markets.
While framed domestically as protectionism, the wider effect has been a more guarded and fragmented global trading environment, particularly for businesses trading with the United States.
For multinational businesses, this is already translating into higher friction in cross-border planning. Supply chains are increasingly exposed to policy volatility rather than purely economic change.
Rising business costs in the UK
In the UK, this global uncertainty is creating a perfect storm with domestic cost pressures also rising.
Small businesses are facing sustained increases in operating expenses, from labour to energy. The hospitality sector is under particular strain due to ongoing VAT pressures and input cost inflation.
High-profile chefs such as Tom Kerridge have publicly pointed out how these rising costs are squeezing margins, especially for restaurants already operating on very thin profitability.
“We could save 21 businesses a week”,Tom Kerridge talksabout cutting VAT in the service industry, as an antidote to these pressures.
The combined impact is a more defensive business environment heading into the second half of 2026, where, for some, robustness is becoming more important than growth.
The return of the megadeal
Global acquisitions are showing a clear shift in behaviour: fewer deals, but significantly larger ones.
But the majority of action comes from equity stake purchases rather than traditional M&As.
When looking specifically at UK equity investment, data from BH shows an 11.8% decline in deal volume between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, yet the average deal size has risen sharply by 36.9%, from £3.17m to £4.34m. In other words, investors are not stepping back from risk; they’re concentrating their impact.
This isn’t surprising given the current level of uncertainty in the business environment.
Investors appear to be doubling down on companies with clearer scale potential or strategic footing in areas like AI and infrastructure.
Justin Tsui, from Beauhurst Insights, says, “AI mega-deals alone drove nearly half of Q1’s capital.”
This pattern has also been reported by Reuters, as shown in the data below.
Megadeals signal a need for control in the markets, as organisations try to establish their long-term positioning. And certainly we’ll see more of them in 2026.
Investment for tech, energy infrastructure, and financial ecosystems
So, we can see that deals, while slightly down in volume, are certainly buoyant in value. What sectors are being invested in?
Technology: We’re seeing greater investment in data-rich businesses, especially those with scalable platforms where value naturally increases over time. Recent activity, including deals involving Darktrace and Ascential, shows strong demand for businesses where data and AI are embedded in the core operating model.
In energy and infrastructure: Capital is clustering around long-term assets linked to energytransition, electrification, and infrastructure durability. Again, much of this is centred around establishing long-term certainty.
Financial services: Firms continue to anchor deal flow, with sustained activity in asset management and consulting. Transactions involving Jupiter Fund Management display a growing appetite for firms positioned at the centre of capital allocation and transformation. High-end recruitment businesses, like Freshminds, are key to delivering talent during these times of change.
Across all three areas, the consistent theme is capital concentration into fewer and larger structures across tech, energy, and finance.
AI-driven infrastructure (and fury)
AI investment is increasing not just in software and models, but in physical infrastructure at an unprecedented scale.
The United States now hosts over 4,300 operational data centres, cementing its position as the global hub for cloud and AI computing capacity.
This reflects the sheer computing demand required to power modern AI systems, from training large models to running real-time enterprise applications.
However, this growth is beginning to inspire visible local pushback. In parts of the US, including Utah, new data centre developments have triggered community opposition over concerns like excessive energy consumption and land-use impact.
Similar tensions are emerging in the UK, where large-scale logistics and distribution developments have faced resistance in areas such as Wigan, highlighting growing friction between national infrastructure strategy and the local community.
It feels like the result is a dual narrative: on one hand, an accelerating global race to build the infrastructure required for AI and digital economies. But on the other hand, increasing local resistance to the physical footprint of that growth.
As AI infrastructure scales, the challenge is shifting from “how fast can we build?” to “how do we build with social licence?” These questions need to be answered this year.
Social media as the new search engine
Another huge shift we’re seeing is how people search online. Social media is increasingly replacing traditional search engines, notably among younger users.
In the US, 46% of Gen Z now use social platforms as a search tool, compared with just 2% of the Silent Generation, signalling a change in how discovery and decision-making happen online.
This behavioural change is having a huge impact on commercial strategy, especially for businesses reliant on organic search, like e-commerce.
Search, content, and checkout are collapsing into the same environment, reshaping the e-commerce funnel from top to bottom. Platforms like TikTok are no longer just influencing demand. We’re seeing them increasingly capture it directly through integrated shopping ecosystems such as TikTok Shop - convenience has become everything!
For businesses, this is driving a clear reallocation of marketing spend. Social-first strategies, short-form video, influencer-led discovery, and platform-native advertising are becoming core growth channels rather than experimental add-ons.
As highlighted by Statista, the generational gap in search behaviour is widening, showcasing a longer-term shift.
Preparing for H2 in Business
In this environment, it’s difficult to talk about the winners and losers in 2026.
While some sectors are benefiting from AI adoption, infrastructure investment, and shifting consumer behaviours, others are facing mounting pressures from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
Certainly, we’re seeing large firms dig their teeth deeper into the market, making it difficult for small and medium businesses to compete, or even survive. But those with their eyes firmly on changing customer behaviour can capitalise on the gaps.
At Freshminds, we've helped organisations navigate major shifts in business, technology, and talent for more than 20 years. Whether you're planning a long-term transformation programme, exploring a new market opportunity, or need support on a specific project, we'd be happy to discuss how we can help.
FAQs
How should a small or mid-sized business respond to a deal market that increasingly favours scale?
Competing directly with megadeal activity isn't realistic for most SMEs, but that doesn't mean standing still. The more useful question is where scale creates gaps. Large consolidations often deprioritise niche segments, specialist services, or faster decision-making, and those are exactly the spaces where smaller businesses can win. Focusing on defensible positioning and strong client relationships tends to outperform trying to grow fast in an environment that's rewarding size over momentum.
If social media is replacing search, does SEO still matter?
Yes, but the definition is shifting. Traditional keyword-driven search optimisation remains relevant for high-intent queries, particularly in B2B and considered purchases, where users still turn to Google. What's changing is the top of the funnel. Discovery is increasingly happening on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, which means organic search and social content can no longer be treated as separate strategies. The businesses ahead of this are building content that works across both environments rather than optimising for one and hoping for the other. SEO is no longer just about optimising for search engines; it’s about optimising everywhere.
What does "social licence" mean in practice for businesses involved in infrastructure or development?
It means earning ongoing community acceptance, not just regulatory approval. Planning permission gets a project started; social licence keeps it running. Businesses in energy, logistics, and data infrastructure are increasingly finding that local opposition can delay or derail developments even where legal compliance isn't in question. Early, genuine community engagement, transparent communication about environmental impact, and demonstrable local benefit are becoming operational requirements rather than PR considerations.
With trade uncertainty unlikely to ease, how should businesses approach supply chain planning?
The old model of optimising purely for cost efficiency is looking increasingly fragile. Businesses with more resilient supply chains tend to trade some efficiency for redundancy, whether that's dual sourcing, nearshoring, or holding slightly higher inventory buffers. None of these is cost-free, but the hidden cost of disruption, particularly for businesses with thin margins, is often higher. Scenario planning for different tariff outcomes is also worth building into any forward strategy, even if the specifics remain unpredictable.
Is the Amazon-Anthropic style of strategic partnership something smaller businesses can replicate?
The scale isn't replicable, but the underlying logic is. The value in those partnerships comes from combining complementary data sets and capabilities to generate insights neither party could reach alone. Smaller businesses can apply the same thinking through formal data-sharing arrangements, co-development with technology partners, or deeper integration with platforms they're already using. The key shift is treating partnerships as a source of intelligence, not just distribution or cost-sharing.
